Opinion: 03.06.2021 - Green List Update - What Next?
Earlier this week, I predicted which countries would appear on the UK Government's Green List (Where could be added in the next Green List Update? (seanm1997.blogspot.com), how wrong could I be. Many airlines were getting ready to add flights to low COVID-19 areas including Malta, Balearic Islands, Canary Islands and Greek Islands. These plans are likely put on hold now for at least another 3 weeks.
In today's announcement, all four nations of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) agreed to not add any countries to the green list and to remove Portugal and move the country to amber. This would lead to self-isolation and additional tests on return to the UK, which could detrimentally impact the viability of travel to the country. Additionally, 7 countries were moved from amber to the red list including the popular tourism destinations of Costa Rica, Egypt and Trinidad & Tobago. Unsurprisingly, this has not been taken well across the travel sector - prolonging travel freedoms for passengers and in turn, discouraging potential customers from travelling.
Airlines, travel agents, tour operators and hoteliers are amongst the hardest hit sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Today's news could lead to the collapse of companies and financial hardship to many others. The UK Government is justifying the move in order to assess the impact of the potential Nepalese COVID-19 variant (which has potentially been found in Portugal) as well as giving the maximum potential for internal 'opening-up' of much of the UK economy on 21st June. It is noted that the World Health Organisation (WHO) do not recognise this new variant as yet, however, the WHO has had a chequered history with the COVID-19 pandemic which has led to many countries taking an independent approach.
The latter point is very interesting. If the UK further opens up on 21st June, it may find it difficult to restrict international travel to the extent that is currently present. Of course this is speculation, but if by removing Portugal from the green list and pausing the expansion of the green list for three weeks helps to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK and beyond, then perhaps the green list will be expanded at greater speed and allow for the travel industry to recover and expand in the coming months.
The reality is, we don't know what is going to happen in the weeks and months ahead. One can hope that UK cases will fall and Europe will continue to speed up vaccinations and testing in order to open travel again at the end of the month. Its going to be a tough time for much of the travel industry but if this accelerates the opening up of countries, then it could be a case of short term pain for long term gain.
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