Where could be added in the next Green List Update?

Disclaimer: This is just my thoughts and opinions and should not be taken as an indicative list

Green list countries: New rules for England revealed (BBC, 7 May 2021)

Green list countries: New rules for England revealed - BBC News

The green list of Summer 2021 was announced in early May and it was considered somewhat disappointing. Many airlines were expecting more than 12 countries with the only major touristic country being Portugal. Since the list, many airlines expanded operations between the UK and Faro in the Algarve. The next green list is expected this week but where could be added?

Malta:
Malta's COVID rate is 4.14 per 100,000 according to 'Our World in Data' (1), about 10 times fewer cases than the current UK COVID rate. Additionally, approximately 71% of the country's population has had at least 1 vaccine with 46% having 2 vaccines, thus having a higher vaccine rate than the UK. The country benefits from not having a land border, thus all international transmissions coming through air and a requirement for a PCR test on arrival in Malta. This allows Malta to accurately record international transmission rates which could make the country attractive to the UK Government for moving from amber to green.

Greece - Kefalonia, Kos, Mykonos, Samos and Zakynthos:
These five Greek Islands have a lower COVID rate per 100,000 than Madeira, which is currently on the Green List, according to 'To Fly To Travel' on Twitter. These rates vary between Kefalonia at 19.55 to Samos at 36.36 but all are lower than the current UK rate. The UK Government has mentioned opening up islands if the mainland of countries have a higher rate and this could be the case for Greece.

Spain - Balearic Islands:
The Balearics are some of the most popular tourist destinations from the UK in summer months, with flights from most UK airports to one or more of these islands scheduled for this summer. The COVID rates for these islands according to 'To Fly To Travel' are 10 (Ibiza), 16 (Menorca) and 19 (Majorca) per 100,000 people. However, opening up to these islands could provide a problem for UK Border Force on return, whom may not have the capacity for a large influx of passengers from the popular holiday resorts. Additionally, there may be skepticism about opening up these islands due to fear of transmission abroad with these islands already being open for several European countries.

Italy - Sardinia:
The Italian island of Sardinia has a current COVID rate of 12.2 per 100,000 according to 'To Fly To Travel', about 4 times less than the current UK rate. Italy as a whole also has a vaccination rate of 36.88% (1 vaccine) with approximately 20% having 2 vaccines. The low case rate and relatively successful ongoing vaccination programme may let the Italian island be the first Italian region to be on the UK Green List.

'To Fly To Travel' via Twitter:
To Fly, To Travel (@tofly_totravel) / Twitter

Caribbean Islands - Antigua & Barbuda and Barbados

Antigua & Barbuda has a COVID rate of approximately 3 per 100,000 and Barbados approximately 12 per 100,000, both have rates considerably lower than the UK. Furthermore, the countries are heavily dependent on tourism and will do almost whatever is possible to bring visitors into the country. This could include vaccination and testing regimes which are comparable to the UK, which may lead to them being included in the latest Green List.

With the UK COVID rate increasing and many European countries putting restrictions on UK travel, the amount of countries being added to the UK Green List may not be large. However, if the previous suggestions of islands having a priority - it could open the door for several Caribbean and Mediterranean Islands to be on the UK Government's Green List which should see airlines adding routes on the announcement. We should know more later in the week.

(1) Our World in Data: Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data