Who could buy British Airways' London Gatwick slots?

British Airways are reported to have axed plans to revive short haul operations at London Gatwick Airport, with all short haul flights removed from sale (excluding daily flights to Glasgow and Manchester). With the second largest carrier at Gatwick significantly reducing operations, which airlines could be interested in buying slots and expand or add a presence at the UK's second busiest airport?

London Gatwick has been hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic. Norwegian Air and Virgin Atlantic have already closed its bases at the airport, whilst many long haul carriers have moved operations to Heathrow - including Air China, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern, Emirates and Rwandair. Whilst some of these airlines are forecast to return in Summer 2022, it is unclear to what extent they will return or if they would remain at Heathrow (if they can obtain long term slots).

All this means there will be a great number of available slots at London Gatwick for new and incumbent airlines to base at the airport or operate flights from existing bases. Let's take a look at what these airlines could be?

1. Vueling

British Airways is owned by International Airlines Group, who also own Spanish low cost carrier Vueling. Vueling already operates nine routes into London Gatwick including Barcelona, Paris and Rome and have bases across Europe including Amsterdam, Malaga and Palma de Mallorca which are currently served by British Airways - thus would allow the group to remain on certain routes. However, despite Vueling operating from 8 airports in the UK in Summer 2021 - their brand is not very well known and may stuggle to gain traction in the competitive London market.

2. easyJet

easyJet are already the largest carrier at London Gatwick and serve the vast majority of routes that British Airways' served at the airport. For easyJet to gain further slots, they would require to base further aircraft at the airport - which due to the limited number of expected deliveries, would mean the reduction of aircraft at other bases. The low cost carrier have already reduced operations across London during the pandemic - closing bases at Southend and Stansted airports, however, they may want the slots to stop other carriers entering the market.

3. Ryanair

Europe's largest carrier only has four routes to the airport - Alicante, Dublin, Malaga and Shannon but their largest base is in London - at Stansted. The carrier is forecast to close its Southend base at the end of October, however, has recently obtained 296 weekly slots at Stansted from easyJet, thus are still forecast to grow their London operations. Launching a base at Gatwick could propel their market share within the London market whilst increasing the competition between Ryanair and easyJet - which exists in a number of markets including Edinburgh, Manchester and Milan. Ryanair have over 200 aircraft awaiting delivery over the next few years, showing clear intent in growing their European operations.

4. Wizz Air

Wizz Air have been rapidly growing their UK operations and launched 2 bases in 2021 in the UK including London Gatwick. Whilst only 1 aircraft is based at the airport at present, the available slots provide an opportunity for the airline to grow its presence. Wizz Air's largest base is within London - at Luton airport, where easyJet are the largest competitor; and increasing the number of based aircraft at Gatwick would also increase competition with easyJet within the London airport. Wizz Air basing at the airport could increase the number of Eastern European destinations from Gatwick -  a market with a limited presence at the airport.

5. Jet2

Jet2 have been expanding since 2017 outside of their Northern heartland - adding Birmingham and London Stansted in 2017 and Bristol in 2021. In September 2021, Jet2 placed an order for 36 A321neo aircraft, showing ambitions to expand within the UK market.

If Jet2 were to expand into an airport, they would require a major presence. This would be a minimum of 4 aircraft and more likely 7-10 aircraft, which would mean obtaining a large number of slots at the airport. However, given the airport is losing many British Airways routes, the airline would face its main competition from easyJet and TUI Airways, something the airline is used to in most of its existing markets. The carrier also has a major brand in the UK and may see this as a next step in becoming an even larger tour operator.

Whilst these five airlines all have potential to grow at Gatwick - it is still unclear if British Airways will still sell the slots or if they are using the threat as a way to strike a deal with the unions. With travel restrictions reducing across Europe, Summer 2022 is forecast to be a recovery compared to the last two summers and Gatwick will want airlines who will bring most amount of passengers to the airport - to spend money within the terminal and car parks.

London is a competitive market - and Gatwick could become the focus of this competition in 2022. Its certainly a development worth watching. 

Images:
https://mediacentre.britishairways.com/image/details/66692
https://mediacentre.easyjet.com/media-library
https://corporate.ryanair.com/media-centre/stock-images-gallery/
https://wizzair.com/en-gb/information-and-services/about-us/press-office/aircraft#