Should Norse Atlantic Airways target Manchester?

Norse Atlantic Airways are planning to launch operations in Summer 2022 from London, Oslo and Paris to various points in the US, using the Boeing 787 aircraft, of which 15 aircraft are awaiting delivery. London Gatwick has been named as the London airport and a British AOC is pending. As the airline is obtaining a UK AOC, should the new airline look at Manchester as a base?

Manchester is the UK's third busiest airport and busiest outside of London. The airport has flights across Europe, Asia, Africa and North America - including several routes to USA. At the time of writing, in Summer 2022, the airport is expected to having the following US routes (subject to change):

Atlanta - Virgin Atlantic (7x weekly on A330)
Boston - Aer Lingus (not currently on sale)

Houston - Singapore Airlines (5x weekly on A350)

Los Angeles - Virgin Atlantic (3x weekly on A330)

New York JFK - Aer Lingus (7x weekly on A321LR)

New York JFK - Virgin Atlantic (7x weekly on A330)

Orlando International - Aer Lingus (7x weekly on A330)

Orlando International - Virgin Atlantic (12x weekly on A330)

Orlando Melbourne - TUI Airways (4x weekly on B787)

However, based on previous seasons - the number of destinations and seats to the US is reduced, especially compared to pre-COVID.

Manchester currently has no flights with the US Big 3 Airlines (American Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines) after American cut its Philadelphia route, Delta cut its planned Boston route and United cut its Newark route. TUI Airways has moved its Orlando flights from Sanford to Melbourne, leaving Sanford unserved, whilst Virgin Atlantic has previously served San Francisco (Summer 2017) and Las Vegas (which was supposed to increase from 4 to 6 weekly flights in 2020 before being cut due to COVID). However, Manchester's biggest loss was when Thomas Cook went into administration.

Thomas Cook had a large transatlantic network from Manchester - serving 8 US destinations: Boston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York JFK, Orlando International, San Francisco and Seattle. Of these, only 3 remain served from the northern airport (Los Angeles, New York JFK and Orlando International), all of which have reduced capacity compared to peak summer 2019. This presents an opportunity for Norse Atlantic Airways to enter the market.

In 2017, Manchester-Miami was served by 27,417 passengers. In the same year, the Boston route recorded 53,829, Chicago 77,784, Las Vegas 156,302, Newark 108,476, Philadelphia 126,438, San Francisco 55,695, Orlando Sanford 48,150 and in 2018 - Manchester-Seattle had 18,867. Yet, all these cities do not have flights on sale from Manchester for Summer 2022 at the time of writing (Aer Lingus plan a Manchester-Boston route but is not currently on sale). These passenger numbers show a market between Manchester and USA which is not being tapped into - and one that Norse Atlantic Airways may not want to ignore.

Norse Atlantic Airways' current plan is to serve Oslo, London and Paris to secondary airports in the United States - with Stewart (New York), Fort Lauderdale (Miami) and Ontario (Los Angeles) being suggested. However, Oslo, London and Paris have a vast array of competition with legacy airlines presence ensuring Norse Atlantic Airways cannot grow to the size of Norwegian Airlines and not to cause the same level of disruption as Norwegian. Therefore, should Norse Atlantic Airways look to serve an alternative airport?

And this is where Manchester could be perfect for the carrier. Basing 3-5 Boeing 787 aircraft and serving high volume leisure routes, with high point-to-point traffic, would allow the carrier to compete against existing airlines and open currently unserved markets - such as Las Vegas, Miami and San Francisco. The airline could serve secondary airports in the US to allow for lower prices, although this didn't appear to work well for Norwegian in 2018/19, where services were moved to primary airports: such as from Fort Lauderdale to Miami and from Oakland to San Francisco.

Manchester has a sprawling catchment - reaching Scotland, Northern England and the Midlands, allowing the airport to have services across 4 continents. This wide catchment, missing links and lack of dominance from any one airline provides the perfect opportunity for Norse Atlantic Airways to compete at Manchester whilst optimising the UK AOC. However, Norwegian did not operate any TATL flights from Manchester and so this will be a new market for the executives - but will they be willing to risk it?

Image:

Norse Atlantic Airways (flynorse.com)

Great Circle Mapper (gcmap.com)

Passenger numbers taken from: https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis/UK-aviation-market/Airports/Datasets/UK-Airport-data/