Ryanair expand the Ireland - UK market, could this impact Emerald Airlines?

Following the collapse of Flybe in March 2020 and liquidation of Stobart Air in June 2021, many routes between Ireland and the United Kingdom were left unserved. However, Ryanair have recently added an abundance of routes from Irish airports to the United Kingdom, closing the opportunity for a new Aer Lingus Regional airline to have a major presence in the market.

Image 1: Ryanair

Over recent months, Ryanair have announced a series of routes including:
Knock - Edinburgh (commenced in September 2021) - previously served by Flybe
Knock - Manchester (commenced in September 2021) - previously served by Flybe
Shannon - Edinburgh (commenced in September 2021) - previously served by Stobart Air
Shannon - London Luton (commences 7 October 2021) - previously unserved
Dublin - Cardiff (commences 31 October 2021) - previously served by Flybe
Shannon - Birmingham (commences 1 November 2021) - previously served by Stobart Air

Image 2: Ryanair's recent Ireland - UK additions

Ryanair have put on sale 13 routes from Cork this morning, including 3 to the United Kingdom:
London Gatwick (commences 1 December 2021) - previously served by Ryanair
Edinburgh (commences 1 December 2021) - previously served by Stobart Air
Birmingham (commences 2 December 2021) - previously served by Stobart Air

All this shows ambition for Ryanair to become the market leader between the two countries, but also to reduce the opportunity for a new airline to enter the market.

Emerald Airlines have recently obtained an AOC and will be the future franchisee of Aer Lingus Regional - a turboprop operator serving the smaller Ireland - UK markets and feeding Aer Lingus' Transatlantic network. The carrier plans to replace Stobart Air, however, this is becoming difficult. Stobart Air had 3 bases: Belfast City, Cork and Dublin, along with 2 routes to Shannon (Birmingham and Edinburgh). However, in Belfast - carriers such as Eastern Airways, easyJet and Loganair have replaced the airline - limiting the scope for a future carrier.

In Cork, Edinburgh and Birmingham have now been added, leaving only Bristol, Glasgow, Manchester and Newquay unserved. Of these, Bristol and Manchester are Ryanair bases, meaning if Emerald do plan to base at the airport, they could face an increase in competition from Ryanair. Additionally, as a third of the routes are now served - it could become unviable for Emerald to have a major presence in Ireland's second busiest airport.

At Shannon, Ryanair have replaced both Stobart Air routes (Birmingham and Edinburgh) - limiting the presence a future Emerald Airlines could have in Western Ireland.

In Dublin, Loganair have added Aberdeen, a route previously served by Aer Lingus Regional and Ryanair will soon launch Cardiff. Whilst these are minor additions - it does show that Emerald Airlines cannot take the airport for granted, as other airlines are vying to take the market once served by Stobart.

Ryanair have the disadvantage over the previously served Flybe and Stobart Air in terms of frequencies. They may have replaced the routes, however, due to their larger aircrafts, they cannot offer the same frequency as a lower capacity operator can do. During COVID-19, where the main aim is backfilling capacity, this may be sufficient, however, as business travellers return, Emerald Airlines or other regional carriers may see this as an opportunity to increase their presence in Ireland. For the customer, there is a balanced judgement to make - the price of Ryanair or the frequency of an alternative carrier.

Images:
Image Gallery | Ryanair's Corporate Website
Great Circle Mapper (gcmap.com)