What next in the UK-US Market?
It is now 18 months since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the UK-US aviation market has changed beyond imagination. Norwegian Air, who's largest base was London Gatwick, has given up on long haul flying (1), Delta Airlines cancelled plans to serve London Gatwick and Manchester, American Airlines and United Airlines left Manchester, British Airways cut two US routes from London Heathrow and Virgin Atlantic consolidated its London operation at London Heathrow. Its fair to say, the sector was torn apart in 2020 and 2021, however, with the vaccine rollout, borders reopening and increasing pressure to return to normality, the sector is demonstrating signs of recovering and new players entering the market.
Initially, the Manchester base will include one A321LR aircraft and one A330-300 aircraft, with a second A330-300 aircraft joining in Winter 2021 and a second A321LR joining for Summer 2022.
Yet this isn't the end of JetBlue's ambitions in the lucrative UK-US market. The airline plans to launch a Boston-London flight in 2022, with a combined total of up to five daily flights to London from Boston/New York in 2022. The airline also revealed plans to launch two summer seasonal routes - between New York JFK and Glasgow and between New York JFK and Manchester following the London routes(2). Whilst few details are known as yet, it shows clear ambitions to take on the established carriers between the UK and US.
Since 2 August 2021, the United Kingdom has allowed vaccinated visitors from the United States to enter the country without quarantine, with a pre-departure and Day 2 test only. This allowed airlines including British Airways, United Airlines and Virgin Atlantic to record surge in sales on its Transatlantic network with additional flights being added subsequently. However, the United States has not reciprocated the policy to British vaccinated visitors, meaning the demand is predominately one-way at present. Airlines are calling on the United States to allow vaccinated Brits into the country, which is seen as the next major step in recovering demand between the two countries.
Despite this, American Airlines have inaugurated its Boston-London Heathrow and Seattle-London Heathrow routes, British Airways have launched a London Heathrow-Orlando route, Delta Airlines have added Seattle-London Heathrow to its network and Virgin Atlantic adding London Heathrow-Orlando to its network.
Furthermore, airlines are continuing to expand and grow in the UK - US market - with six airlines suggesting new routes and opportunities to connect the two markets. These are Aer Lingus, JetBlue, Norse Atlantic Airways, TUI Airways, United Airlines and Virgin Atlantic. So, what are they are planning?
Aer Lingus
From 30 September 2021, Aer Lingus are planning to base aircraft in Manchester for the first time and launch two new US routes - New York JFK (daily flights) and Orlando International (5x weekly flights). This will be followed by Barbados from October 2021 and Boston in Summer 2022.
Initially, the Manchester base will include one A321LR aircraft and one A330-300 aircraft, with a second A330-300 aircraft joining in Winter 2021 and a second A321LR joining for Summer 2022.
In 2022, with the addition of Boston - Manchester will serve 7 US destinations: Atlanta, Boston, Houston Intercontinental, Los Angeles, New York JFK, Orlando International and Orlando Sanford*.
JetBlue
On 11 August 2021, JetBlue launched their inaugural Transatlantic flight - between New York JFK and London Heathrow. This is operated on the A321LR aircraft and will operate up to once daily until March 2022. In September, the airline plans to serve a second London Airport - Gatwick, with daily flights also operated on the A321LR aircraft.
Yet this isn't the end of JetBlue's ambitions in the lucrative UK-US market. The airline plans to launch a Boston-London flight in 2022, with a combined total of up to five daily flights to London from Boston/New York in 2022. The airline also revealed plans to launch two summer seasonal routes - between New York JFK and Glasgow and between New York JFK and Manchester following the London routes(2). Whilst few details are known as yet, it shows clear ambitions to take on the established carriers between the UK and US.
Norse Atlantic Airways
Founded in 2021, the Norwegian carrier plans 15, Boeing 787 aircraft and launch 3 bases in Europe including at London Gatwick, the former home of Norwegian Air. From 2022, the carrier plans to launch Transatlantic flights from Gatwick to destinations, suggested to include New York JFK, Los Angeles and Fort Lauderdale(3). Ticket sales are expected to launch three months prior to operation with the airline hoping to fill the void left by its country counterpart.
TUI Airways
Announced in 2019, the UK leisure airline plans to switch its Orlando base from Sanford to Melbourne in 2022. Melbourne is located close to Port Canaveral, where some TUI cruises operate from, in addition to NASA's Kennedy Space Centre and Orlando's closest beaches. The airline plans to switch all eight of its UK routes from Sanford to Melbourne, connecting its new Florida hub to Birmingham, Bristol, Doncaster/Sheffield, Edinburgh, Glasgow, London Gatwick, Manchester and Newcastle, with flights operating throughout the summer season. All flights are proposed to operate on the Boeing 787 aircraft.
United Airlines
In February 2021, it was revealed that United Airlines had won a daily pair of slots at London Heathrow as part of the remedy slots from the British Airways-American Airlines Joint Venture, the airline announced plans to operate a daily flight between Boston and London Heathrow in 2021, operated on the Boeing 767-400 aircraft.. Whilst dates have not been announced as yet, the airline still has plans to launch the route. What's different about this route pair is the fact United Airlines do not have a base at Boston, meaning the airline is predominately serving point-to-point passengers, although passengers will have a large variety of Star Alliance partners to connect with at London Heathrow once the route launches.
Virgin Atlantic
Following Virgin Atlantic's London consolidation in early 2020, the airline plans to launch a new route between Edinburgh and Orlando International from 29 March 2022, operating with two weekly flights on the A330-200 aircraft. As a result of the new Edinburgh to Orlando International route, Virgin Atlantic's existing Glasgow to Orlando International will be cut. This in part due to Virgin Atlantic's partnership with Delta (which has a New York JFK - Edinburgh route), this Central Belt co-location may help with cost saving as well as diversifying the network, capitalising on the increase in leisure travel predicted in the coming months.
Despite the uncertainty of travel restrictions, it is clear that airlines still believe the UK-US market will recover. More destinations and routes are likely to return or be added in the coming years and competition may increase. Whilst short term there are still many challenges ahead, it is hopeful that the market will recover and new opportunities will arise.
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