Ryanair to leave Northern Ireland - What Next?

Ryanair are to not serve Northern Ireland from 31 October 2021, after axing City of Derry in January 2021 and curtailing its 8 Belfast City routes on 12 September 2021 (previously on sale until 30 October 2021). Ryanair are now leaving a third airport in Northern Ireland - Belfast International, where it serves six routes. This leaves the country without a direct service with the low cost carrier.

Ryanair have been in the Northern Ireland market for over a decade and have served a variety of domestic and international routes during that time, however, the airline are not the largest in Northern Ireland - with easyJet serving more routes and passengers than Ryanair. However, 2021 has been a turbulent year for Ryanair in the Northern Ireland market.

How has 2021 impacted Ryanair's Northern Ireland operation?
Ryanair ended its City of Derry to Edinburgh and Liverpool routes in early 2021 due to a row with the UK's Civil Aviation Authority regarding Brexit-related policy. Edinburgh and Liverpool were City of Derry's two busiest routes in 2020, despite the COVID travel restrictions, although passengers had fallen by 68% and 52% year on year respectively. This left City of Derry with just two scheduled routes - served by Loganair to Glasgow and London Stansted and whilst Liverpool was picked up by the Scottish carrier, Edinburgh remains unserved.

Things looked brighter for Ryanair when they announced eight new summer seasonal routes from Belfast City - serving Italy, Spain and Portugal. These leisure routes were aimed at the holiday market, capitalising on the travel restrictions within the Republic of Ireland and open border with Northern Ireland, meaning passengers were able to fly from Belfast for a holiday. However, Ryanair then curtailed its Belfast City operation by 6 weeks, ending in mid-September, with little reasoning. Belfast City does have a short runway, with a Boeing 737 aircraft unable to operate at full capacity, which was going to be a hindrance for future growth. Despite this, it leaves Belfast City with a significant fall in passenger numbers - with the airport already suffering from the loss of Flybe and travel restrictions relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.

City of Derry was a small, domestic only operation whilst Belfast City was seen to be a stop-gap whilst the pandemic limited travel from certain countries. The most unexpected move from Ryanair was the cancellation of its Belfast International routes from 31 October 2021.

The Belfast International operation had been reducing over the last few years, with routes including London Stansted, Malta and Manchester being removed. However, the airline still served 6 routes from Northern Ireland's busiest airport - Alicante and Malaga in Spain, Milan Bergamo in Italy and Gdansk, Krakow and Warsaw Modlin in Poland. This mixture of routes helped connect Belfast to popular leisure destinations as well as attracting the VfR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) market. easyJet remain serving 3 of these routes - Alicante, Krakow and Malaga; Jet2 on 2 of these routes - Alicante and Malaga and TUI Airways will serve Malaga. However, this leaves 3 unserved destinations from Belfast - Gdansk, Milan Bergamo and Warsaw Modlin.

Could another airline pick up the Ryanair lost routes?
Loganair has already picked up City of Derry to Liverpool, operating at a higher frequency than Ryanair albeit with lower seats, helping to attract to the VfR market. From Belfast City, due to the limited runway length, it is unlikely to see the eight leisure routes picked up - although a Version 2 of Flybe with Dash aircraft may find a niche.

At Belfast International, easyJet, Jet2 and TUI already operate 3 of the 6 routes and this is likely to continue. Regarding the 3 unserved routes - one airline stands out to fill the void - Wizz Air.

Wizz Air are one of Europe's fastest growing airlines with bases in Gdansk, Milan (Malpensa) and Warsaw (Chopin). The airline has been rapidly expanding in the United Kingdom - launching new bases in Doncaster and London Gatwick, adding a new base in Cardiff in 2022 and have seen new routes appear such as Birmingham-Larnaca and Liverpool-Tirana.

At present, Wizz Air serve 1 route to Belfast International - Vilnius in Lithuania, however, it may not beyond possibility to see the low cost carrier look to expand in Northern Ireland and serve these soon-to-be unserved routes from Northern Ireland's busiest airports. The airline additionally has a base in Krakow, so may even look to compete against easyJet to serve Poland's second largest cities.

To conclude
Northern Ireland losing Europe's largest carrier is a loss and will mean less competition and more unserved routes from the region. However, it does provide an opportunity for other airlines to expand in the country and launch new routes to connect Belfast and Derry to the United Kingdom and Europe.