12 June 2021
Image 1: Stobart Air
Late on the evening of 11th June, Stobart Air notified Aer Lingus that it is terminating its franchise agreement with Aer Lingus with immediate effect. As a result, all Aer Lingus Regional flights operated by Stobart Air are cancelled.
Overnight, Managing Director of Stobart Air, Andy Jolly sent an email to employees regarding the termination of flights.
In the email, it states 'Esken has yesterday evening, 11JUN21, stated that it is now clear that Ettyl is unable to conclude the transaction to acquire Stobart Air UC on the original terms, or to obtain an alternative funding package within the required timescale. Esken has therefore exercised its right to terminate the contract with Ettyl for the transaction with immediate effect.'
The email concludes by stating, 'Accordingly all EI [Aer Lingus] franchise and BA [British Airways] wet-lease flying is terminated - with immediate effect all flights are cancelled - and the Board of Stobart Air UC is in now in the process of appointing a liquidator'.
Stobart Air operated regional flights from Belfast City, Cork, Dublin and Shannon to the United Kingdom, Channel Islands, Isle of Man and France as well as Public Service Obligation routes from Dublin to Donegal and Dublin to Kerry. The airline had recent announced plans to launch new routes for Summer 2021 including Belfast City to Cardiff, Glasgow and Newquay and Dublin to Cardiff and Exeter.
Image 2: GC Map - Planned Stobart Air Routes for 2021
When Flybe collapsed in March 2020, Belfast City lost 70.3% of its total seats and 80.3% of its movements. Yet the airport was able to rebuild with BA CityFlyer, Eastern Airways and Loganair adding new routes (as well as Stobart Air) (read more about Belfast City and the prosperity since Flybe here: https://seanm1997.blogspot.com/2021/05/has-flybes-collapse-allowed-belfast.html). Now that Stobart Air is looking to appoint a liquidator, the airport is having to rebuild its network again from the loss of its largest airline. However this time, the airport has existing partners to which could aid the recovery of its network.
What next for these routes?
In May 2021, it was reported that start up airline Emerald Airways were on the verge of signing a contract to operate the Aer Lingus Regional service from 2022 when its current contract ends with Stobart Air. Aer Lingus may look at mobilising Emerald more quickly in order for Aer Lingus to remain flying on these routes. Yet this is unlikely to be a quick process, as the original timeline for starting is 18 months away, with licenses, employees and contracts required before the airline can start.
Other carriers may look at launching some of the routes.
easyJet are the largest carrier operating from Belfast International and may look into increasing the frequencies of existing flights to Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Manchester. The airline has also recently launched summer seasonal routes to Newquay (from Glasgow and Manchester), therefore this may be an interesting proposition for the low cost carrier.
Ryanair are the largest carrier in Ireland and have bases in Cork, Dublin and Shannon. The low cost carrier may look at adding new routes to its network and directly replace routes such as:
Cork - Birmingham / Bristol / Edinburgh / Glasgow / Manchester / Newquay
Dublin - Aberdeen / Cardiff / Exeter / Newquay
Shannon - Birmingham / Edinburgh
Blue Islands are launching its Exeter base in 2021 (delayed from 2020), with one aircraft. The carrier may look at adding Exeter - Dublin to its network from its South West base, where it currently operates flights from Exeter to Jersey and Manchester.
Eastern Airways operate bases from Cardiff and Leeds/Bradford and already serves the Cardiff - Belfast City route. The regional carrier may look at adding Cardiff - Dublin, Leeds/Bradford - Dublin and Leeds/Bradford - Belfast City to its network in order to grow its network.
Loganair recently withdrew from its Glasgow - Belfast City route when Stobart Air announced they would operate the route. The Scottish carrier may look at returning to the route, which it launched when Flybe collapsed in early 2020. The Edinburgh - Belfast City route may also be of interest to Loganair, but it could depend if they have the fleet to expand.
There are options for carriers to rebuild connectivity to Belfast, Cork, Shannon and Dublin, however, with COVID reducing the demand for travel, it may be a long road ahead for the airports of Ireland and Northern Ireland to rebuild. A number of options are out there - plus maybe some surprises - but how long it takes for all these routes to return is unknown.
I wouldn't also rule out CityFlyer.
ReplyDelete