Flybe eyes Midlands Base

Flybe have announced that it will be recruiting for numerous roles based in the Midlands.

Posted on LinkedIn, the airline announced it is 'launching a regional airline focused on safety, service and operational excellence' [and] 'are looking for the most creative and innovative minds to help us achieve our mission and will be recruiting for numerous roles based in the Midlands'.

Flybe was previously one of Europe's largest previous carriers before its collapse in March 2020 and was the biggest airline in the domestic market in the United Kingdom - with 46.4% of seats in UK domestic regional market (excluding London). The airline had its largest bases in Birmingham and Manchester, with a significant market share in Belfast City, Exeter, Newquay and Southampton, among others (read more about Belfast City: https://seanm1997.blogspot.com/2021/05/has-flybes-collapse-allowed-belfast.html).

However, since its collapse and despite the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines including Aer Lingus, Aurigny, British Airways, Blue Islands, Eastern Airways, easyJet and Loganair have grown the number of UK routes, in addition to Wizz Air whom are launching their first UK domestic routes in July 2021. All bar two domestic routes which were operating at the time of Flybe's collapse have now been picked up - these being Edinburgh-Manchester and Exeter-London City, with both having regular rail links as an alternative to flying (excluding Belfast City-East Midlands and Belfast City-Leeds/Bradford as easyJet have picked up these routes from Belfast International).

The UK domestic market is now more customer friendly. There is increased competition and increased number of carriers, allowing the market to be more resilient to a collapse of an airline and to allow for competitive fares between carriers, which was not seen when Flybe had a large share in the market.

Furthermore, at airports where Flybe had large market share - the majority of routes have been picked up by other carriers. Belfast City have regained all bar two routes (East Midlands and Leeds/Bradford - which were served prior to the collapse of Stobart Air: https://seanm1997.blogspot.com/2021/06/stobart-air-terminates-all-flights-what.html), whilst Southampton has regained all its lost domestic routes (https://seanm1997.blogspot.com/2021/06/has-flybes-collapse-allowed-southampton.html).

What is the opportunity for Flybe?

Based on the LinkedIn advert, it is likely the airline will look to base at Birmingham. Domestically, all of Flybe's former routes have been picked up by Aer Lingus, Aurigny, Blue Islands, easyJet or Loganair - with Birmingham having direct flights to 10 domestic airports. If Flybe decides to launch domestic flights, it may find it difficult to compete with airlines which have operated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic or with large brand awareness.

Internationally is a different market. Of Flybe's 13 international routes from Birmingham - 10 remain unserved: Bastia, Berlin, Bordeaux, Hamburg, Hanover, Knock, Lyon, Milan, Nantes and Stuttgart. This could provide an opportunity for Flybe - connecting regional European cities to Birmingham, which do not face direct competition in order to be able to charge profitable fares.

Additionally, Flybe could look to codeshare with carriers such as Air France or KLM, as they previously have done - to reconnect airports which lost their hub connection to regain their links. These include East Midlands-Amsterdam, Exeter-Amsterdam, Southampton-Paris CDG, which were three of Flybe's most international profitable routes (anna aero). However, for Amsterdam and Paris flights to the UK to succeed, the codeshare would need to be in placed and with European competition rules, this is not guaranteed as codeshare talks cannot commence until the routes are announced.

Another possibility could be to launch at Belfast City. Following the collapse of Stobart Air (Aer Lingus Regional) in June 2021, many routes have a reduced frequency or reduced seats compared to Flybe or Stobart Air. Basing aircraft at the airport where it previously had a large market share could allow it to grow the Great Britain - Northern Ireland market, however, with easyJet, Loganair and Ryanair now having a significant presence in Belfast, it would be difficult for favourable terms to be agreed - along with increased competition in the market and reduced demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Flybe's failure came from a lack of focus - wanting to be many things to many people and not being the best at one field. With increased competition in the domestic market and increased low cost carrier presence between secondary UK cities and secondary European cities, it could be difficult for Flybe to regain its brand awareness and customer base which have moved to other carriers. Additionally, with the majority of Flybe's profitable routes being picked up by other carriers, is there a market for them to succeed in or is this another venture doomed for failure?

Source:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6815324137381220352/
https://www.anna.aero/2020/10/23/flybe-had-15-international-routes-with-16m-profit-in-2019-rdcs-apex-shows-11-still-unserved/#:~:text=Manchester%20to%20Paris%20CDG%20was,a%20minimum%20of%20%C2%A3410%2C000.