easyJet expands UK domestic - where next?

Even before the collapse of Flybe in March 2021, easyJet has been the number 1 domestic carrier by seats in the UK - connecting major airports including London Gatwick, Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast International, and has recently grown its UK domestic operation.

easyJet have long served one key market in the UK domestic market - connecting major cities and conurbations. Belfast (International) has been key to this. Being on a separate island to Great Britain has allowed easyJet to grow its Belfast operation in recent years and with the collapse of Flybe, easyJet became the largest domestic carrier from the Northern Ireland capital.

In 2019, the airline launched Manchester - Jersey and in 2020 launched Edinburgh - Birmingham and Glasgow - Birmingham. In 2021 the airline re-introduced previously cut routes including London Gatwick - Aberdeen and Edinburgh - Jersey and has added new routes to Bournemouth (from Belfast and Edinburgh), Inverness (Belfast) and Newquay (Glasgow, London Gatwick and Manchester). This all shows significant confidence that the UK domestic market but also a growing demand for staycations. With this in mind, whats next for easyJet in the UK domestic market?

easyJet could choose to grow in two different markets - one being business orientated and one being leisure orientated.

Business Orientated:

Belfast International - Leeds/Bradford

The city pair is served by Stobart Air from Belfast City up to 3x daily, but there are no direct flights between Belfast International and Leeds. Additionally, Leeds is one of the largest cities in Great Britain and a connection to Belfast International could provide competition with Stobart Air and grow business links between the two cities. With over 155,000 passengers flying between Belfast and Leeds in 2019, there is scope for a competitor on this city pair.

Belfast International - Southampton

Southampton has been long constrained due to its short runway. However, an A319 aircraft can land at the airport with a slightly reduced pay load and as this would be a short sector, this may just be a handful of seats. Eastern Airways currently fly between Belfast City and Southampton and the city pair saw approximately 118,000 passengers in 2019. In 2021, easyJet launched a summer-seasonal Belfast International - Bournemouth route which serves a similar catchment, but as this is only 2x weekly flights, there could be room for additional flights in the South Coast catchment area.

Bristol - Aberdeen

Until recently, this route was flown daily on a non-stop basis by Loganair, whom have now replaced the route as a one-stop via Teesside. During COVID this maybe a wise move due to lower passenger numbers, but it is a route which has been served nonstop for many years with FlyBMI before Loganair. With over 15,000 passengers flying the route in 2019, it is a route which could complement easyJet's current flights from Bristol to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Inverness in Scotland.

Manchester - Aberdeen

Loganair currently serve this pair of airports up to 3x daily, however capacity is reduced from 2019 when Flybe operated the route and where over 212,000 passengers flew between Manchester and Aberdeen. There maybe scope for easyJet to expand its domestic operations from Aberdeen - as the Scottish airport only has domestic flights to London (Gatwick and Luton) with easyJet.

Manchester - Exeter

Blue Islands are scheduled to launch a new Manchester-Exeter route in Summer 2021 and in 2019, the city pair served 128,000 annual passengers. Blue Islands are scheduled to operate this route 2-3x daily, yet this is at a significant reduction in frequency compared to when Flybe operated the city pair. This city pair contains major UK universities and a partnership could be lucrative for easyJet in making its potential debut in Exeter.

Manchester - Southampton

With almost 200,000 annual passengers in 2019, this is the second time Southampton is appearing on this list as a potential route. It is noted that Blue Islands and Eastern Airways will operate flights in 2021 between the two cities, with both airlines operating twice a day. However, the frequencies and seats between these two English airports are significantly reduced since the collapse of Flybe and with the two existing carriers operating flights at similar timings to each other, this could be an option for easyJet to launch a competing service at different times to expand the market.

Leisure Oriented:

Belfast International - Newquay

Stobart Air are to launch a new summer seasonal Belfast City to Newquay route at the end of June 2021, operating 3x weekly, yet with the growing demand of staycations, this could be an option for easyJet to launch a fourth summer seasonal route from the Cornish airport and rival the offering by Stobart Air.

Bristol - Jersey

Blue Islands operates daily flights between the two cities, which is seen as a lifeline link to NHS and education facilities on Great Britain for Jersey residents. Yet in the summer, Jersey is bustling destination for visitors from the United Kingdom. easyJet operate domestic flights from all of its other UK bases to Jersey and a low frequency, summer only route could be a complementary offering to its existing Jersey flights and provide competition with Blue Islands.

Liverpool - Newquay

Newquay was added to easyJet's network in 2021 with flights to Glasgow, London and Manchester. This route was previously served by easyJet between 2013 and 2015 but has been unserved since. Whilst this would compete with the new Manchester - Newquay route, it could provide a complementary addition and serve as a fourth domestic route from Liverpool (after Belfast International, Isle of Man and Jersey).

London Luton - Newquay

A public service obligation (PSO) was previously in place between London and Newquay and operated by Flybe, up to four times a day, before it ceased operation. Across the London-Newquay market, approximately 196,000 passengers flew in 2019. Since then, British Airways operated between London (Heathrow) and Newquay but the PSO has now been suspended until at least the winter season. British Airways and easyJet will operate between London (Heathrow and Gatwick respectively) and Newquay but with a combined 8x weekly flights during peak summer only. With this in mind, the lack of supply could be an attractive proposition for easyJet to add a second London - Newquay route during the summer season. It is also noted that Wizz Air do not fly domestically from the UK, thus this would be one route which easyJet won't find competition on from London Luton.

easyJet has long had a major presence in the UK domestic market - but has seen a growing number of competitors launch routes since the demise of Flybe including BA CityFlyer, Blue Islands, Eastern Airways, Loganair and Stobart Air all adding domestic flights in 2020 and 2021. Yet easyJet has been able to find a niche and unique offering - with low frequency, leisure orientated domestic routes with lack of competition. What route easyJet takes forward in the future is difficult to predict, but the airline will have to adapt as the COVID travel restrictions loosen and travellers are looking to fly again. If Air Passenger Duty gets scrapped - we may see some of these routes picked up as well as others including London Gatwick to Newcastle (cut in 2015) and Birmingham to Newquay (the largest unserved market from Newquay).

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