Could Bristol be Turkish Airlines' next UK destination?

Turkish Airlines serves more countries than any other carrier and currently serves 5 UK airports - London Heathrow, London Gatwick, Manchester, Edinburgh and Birmingham, with its sister airline AnadoluJet serving London Stansted. However, as the airline sector starts to recover, could Turkish Airlines add a sixth destination in the UK - Bristol?

Bristol is the largest city in South West England and has the 8th busiest airport in the UK and 4th busiest outside of London - behind Manchester, Edinburgh and Birmingham, having overtaken Glasgow in 2019 - serving approximately 8.9 million passengers per year. However, it is the largest airport outside of London to not be served by a Middle East Big 3 (ME3) carrier - these being Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways. Could this therefore attract Turkish Airlines to the airport.

Based on the current forecast for Winter 2021, Emirates will serve the most UK airports with 7 - Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted Airports in London plus Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Newcastle (Edinburgh not currently on sale). Qatar Airways will serve 4 airports - London Heathrow, London Gatwick, Manchester and Edinburgh (Birmingham and Cardiff not currently on sale) whilst Etihad Airways will serve 2 airports - London Heathrow and Manchester. These 3 carriers connect Europe to Africa and Asia through their hubs in the Middle East and is a market Turkish Airlines is growing in.

Istanbul New Airport opened in April 2019 and was the world's largest airport at the time of opening and is forecast to have capacity for up to 200 million passengers by the mid-2020s. Turkish Airlines use this airport as a hub, showing its intent to grow operations and become a bigger rival to the ME3 in connecting Europe with Asia, Africa and beyond. The location of this hub is key, as narrow body planes can reach most destinations in Europe, North Africa, Middle East and Indian Subcontinent, allowing for more fuel efficient journeys. This has encouraged Turkish Airlines to expand its fleet and currently has over 150 aircraft deliveries forecast to arrive by 2023 - making them one of the largest airlines in the world.

Why is Bristol the perfect city for Turkish Airlines?

In 2018, Qatar Airways launched flights to Cardiff - a city located just 43 miles from Bristol and was one of the smallest airports Qatar Airways operated to. This was a bold move as it was announced at a similar time that Qatar Airways would launch flights to London Gatwick, the second busiest airport in the UK and one of the busiest airports in the world that Qatar Airways did not serve. These daily flights operated on the Boeing 787-8 aircraft which is not completely suitable to Bristol due to Bristol's short runway (it can handle a B787-8 aircraft but the heat in Doha could mean a reduced load maybe required). These flights have been suspended since March 2020 and are not on sale for future seasons, suggesting the route has been terminated. This has meant the South West of England and South Wales do not have a direct flight to the Middle East. The South West England catchment is especially wealthy compared to the UK average and an expanding airline like Turkish Airlines can capitalise on this market by operating a narrow body plane to the airport, meaning higher fares due to lower supply and allow for connections in Istanbul to the Middle East and Asia.

Bristol Airport is also capacity constrained - especially in the morning hours. Jet2 have announced a new base at the airport from July 2021 and the airport has managed to attract Lufthansa with daily flights starting from the end of June 2021. This demonstrates demand for both business and leisure carriers to grow in Bristol and should encourage Turkish Airlines to also launch at the airport whilst there is stand and slot capacity between 10am and 11am - the times which would feed into the Turkish Airlines hub at Istanbul.

Bristol only has two carriers which connects Bristol to Asia and Africa - KLM to Amsterdam and Lufthansa to Frankfurt. The lack of competition at Bristol compared to comparably sized airports in the UK and Europe as well as the growing network from Turkish Airlines indicates the time maybe right for Turkish Airlines to connect to the South West airport and open up opportunities to the rest of the world.

Bristol is the busiest airport in the UK (outside of London) without a Turkish Airlines service, meaning it is the most likely airport for Turkish Airlines to add. However, this is no guarantee as Turkish Airlines may not want to deflate its Istanbul - London Heathrow market as London Heathrow is just 103 miles away (approximately 1h45 drive time) and may want to grow its direct leisure routes than grow its Istanbul hub.

Photo: https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2018/01/10/turkish-airlines-seeks-largest-aircraft-fleet-with-istanbuls-new-airport
Photo: https://www.qatarairways.com/en-gb/media-newsroom.html
Photo: https://www.lufthansacityline.com/en/fleet-route-network/airbus-a319-100.html