Has Flybe's collapse allowed Belfast City to prosper?

On 5 March 2020, Flybe ceased operations, leading to many routes across the United Kingdom being cut. At Belfast City, Flybe had 70.3% of total seats and 80.3% of movements with a total of 679,927 scheduled departure seats. However, this gave Belfast City an opportunity - to be less reliant on one carrier and to spread its operations across many.

First came Loganair - adding flights from Aberdeen and Inverness followed by Eastern Airways launching Southampton flights. In July 2020, BA CityFlyer announced a London City route from September 2020 before Stobart Air added 6 routes from Belfast City under the Aer Lingus Regional brand - Birmingham, East Midlands, Edinburgh, Exeter, Leeds/Bradford and Manchester. This led to the first base at Belfast City following the collapse of Flybe - albeit at reduced frequencies. Finally in 2020, Loganair announced a new route from Dundee, the first route which was not previously served by Flybe.

Yet it was in 2021 when Belfast City really found their feet. Loganair announced two further routes from Isle of Man and Teesside and Eastern Airways announced a route to Cardiff - being the first link to Wales from Northern Ireland since the collapse of Flybe.

In March 2021, the first major international route expansion at the airport was made. Ryanair announced a return to the airport after an 11 year hiatus with 8 new routes for the Summer 2021 schedule - across Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Vueling became the latest airline to announce flights from Belfast City with a summer seasonal service to Barcelona before Stobart Air continued their Belfast City expansion with additional aircraft being based in Northern Ireland along with 3 further routes - Cardiff, Glasgow and Newquay.

In total, Summer 2021 will provide 26 routes to Belfast City across 8 airlines including 17 domestic routes and 9 international routes. This is a greater number than 2019 and has resulted in the airport being non-reliant on any one airline. It can be noted that frequencies are significantly reduced since Flybe - with the latest travel restrictions and fall in business travel being key reasons why the levels of domestic flying has not yet recovered.

However, when compared to years gone past, having a diverse network has allowed Belfast City not to be so reliant on one airline. Stobart Air is the largest carrier in terms of movements and departure seats, but with a lower percentage of capacity than Flybe. Additionally, the airport has become more resilient to external factors. If another airline collapses, the airport should be able to recover, but not being reliant on just one airline allows the airport to have more room in negotiating deals with airlines.

Belfast City may not be such a domestic-dominated, business-orientated airport compared to pre-COVID. The airport has a number of summer seasonal leisure routes across the Mediterranean whilst its domestic offering is similar to pre-COVID levels (with just a couple of UK domestic destinations missing).

What next for Belfast City?

Belfast City is constrained by its short runway length. Ryanair are unable to operate at a full pay load with the airport also capped at a movement cap. Yet the airport has shown it has an attractive offering for both domestic and international routes and airlines and could look at other UK carriers - such as Aurigny (Guernsey) and Blue Islands (Jersey) or an additional hub carrier such as Air France (Paris CDG) or Lufthansa (Frankfurt).

However, where the airport could prosper is attracting a low cost carrier to launch UK domestic routes. easyJet and Ryanair operate flights from Belfast International but Ryanair axed all UK domestic routes in 2020. If the UK Government announces a reform of the Air Passenger Duty (APD) tax, it may encourage either airline to expand its domestic offering - and potentially operate a base from Belfast City. This is speculation at this stage, but attracting one of Europe's largest airlines to base at the airport could allow the airport to grow with more passengers on each flight and increase the number of movements at the airport.

Belfast City Airport could really have suffered with its main airline collapsing and the impacts of COVID reducing travel demand across the world. However, the airport has managed to rebuild its network and expand - offering more destinations and airlines than pre-COVID and be less reliant on one carrier. The airport appears more resilient to external shocks and has capacity for further growth once demand for business and leisure travel improves.

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